Tuesday, March 6, 2012

John Wall: How to Succeed in the NBA When Your Teammates Aren't Really Trying


I realized while watching the Warriors vs Wizards game last night that I hadn’t seen the Wizards play at all this year, a fact that had not caused me to miss a moment of sleep. I’ve kept up with the Wizards shenanigans for the most part, from Andray Blatche complaining about his role after the team’s first game (the fact he was named team captain still blows my mind) to Flip Saunders getting fired to Javale McGee’s constant buffoonery (John Wall’s body language in that clip says it all), but I hadn’t watched them play yet. A lot of this has to do with the fact I live on the West Coast, I work for The Man and Wizards games aren’t on national TV very much. But I have seen a fair amount of bad teams play this year, so it felt weird going into a game with essentially a clean slate.

Well, the Wizards were all that could be expected, losing to my Warriors 120-100 in a game where it felt like they were down 20 from the opening tip. Their roster is a perfect collection of players who have no idea how to play team basketball, except for John Wall. He stands out so clearly on the floor when he plays, not just because he such an incredible athlete (he outran Monta Ellis down the floor a few times) but because he seems to be the only player on that team that actually cares. He finished the game with 20 points (7-10 FGs, 6-7 FTs), 14 assists, 6 rebounds and only 2 turnovers. Now take those numbers with a grain of salt since the game was a blowout and he was playing the Warriors, the 5th worst defensive team in terms of defensive efficiency.

But those numbers did raise his season averages to 17.6 points per game, 7.8 assists per game and 5.0 rebounds per game. Which had me thinking: how many players have averaged at least 17 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds per game in either their rookie season or their 2nd season?
 
The answer: 4. You may have heard of these 4 guys:

LeBron James averaged 27.2 ppg, 7.2 apg and 7.4 rpg in his 2nd season in Cleveland in 2004-5.

Walt Clyde Frazier averaged 17.5 ppg, 7.9 apg and 6.2 rpg for the Knicks in 1968-9, his 2nd season in the NBA as well.

Magic Johnson averaged 18 ppg, 7.3 apg and 7.7 rpg in his rookie season in LA, when they eventually won the title. Magic actually accomplished this feat in his 2nd season as well, averaging 21.6 ppg, 8.6 apg and 8.6 rpg, but he only played 37 games due to injury.

Oscar Robertson averaged a ridiculous 30.5 ppg, 9.7 apg and 10.1 rpg as a rookie for the Cincinnati Royals in 1960-1. He was even better in his 2nd season, averaging 30.8 ppg, 11.4 apg and 12.5 rpg, becoming the first and only player to average a triple double per game for an entire season.

Clearly Wall is barely sneaking his way into this group. He’s not nearly as efficient as any of these guys on the list, not to mention the season is only 37 games old. But if Wall were to continue at the pace he’s playing right now he would become the 5th member of this group. Also not insignificant is the fact that Wall is the only player averaging 17-7-5 in the NBA this season (LeBron is averaging 6.8 apg so the chances of him getting there are pretty good).

Which brings me back to last night’s game. The Wizards were slight betting favorites against the Warriors, who were playing the 2nd end of a back-to-back where they scored just 75 points against the Raptors, yet lost by 20. There’s no such thing as a game you “should” win when you’re a bad team, and the Warriors are the most cold/hot team in the league, but last night was a game the Wizards should have won. Wall did more than enough to contribute to a win, but when your starting 2-guard and small forward combine to go 3-20 from the field (1-10 from 3, most were awful shots) then you’re not going to win a lot of games.

In a season where Kyrie Irving and Ricky Rubio are getting all the publicity as being the top young point guards in the NBA, let’s not forget about John Wall. I mentioned before that he still isn’t a very efficient player, but he is clearly a better rebounder than those 2 and he has improved his FG% and FT% this season compared to last. His Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is slightly better than Rajon Rondo’s at this point (18.8 to 18.7).  If he can keep improving his game throughout his career than he won’t be such an outlier in the young 17-7-5 club. Let’s just hope he gets some teammates who are willing to go as hard as him.

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