Arizona Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton and Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen have become two of the sexiest names in baseball in 2011. And for good reason. Both players have become legitimate stars after they were high first round draft picks in the 2005 MLB draft (Upton 1st overall, McCutchen 11th). Both were All Stars this season, they are both currently in the top 6 in WAR in the National League and both players have been the best players on teams that have over achieved this season (and up until 2 weeks ago both of their teams were in pennant races, not so much anymore for the Pirates). But the question today is whom would you rather have going forward?
Despite both being drafted straight out of high school, Upton was much more of a known commodity than McCutchen. In 2002, Justin’s brother BJ Upton was the #2 overall pick in the draft. Billed as being even more talented than his older brother, Justin one-upped BJ by being the 1st overall pick and made his big league debut in 2007 at the age of 19 and has never looked back. McCutchen made his big league debut for Pittsburgh in 2009 at the age of 22 and has been their starting CF ever since. Let’s take a look at the numbers, starting with McCutchen:
2009: .286/.365/.474, 26 2B, 12 HR, 22 SB (5 CS) 3.5 WAR, 108 games, 493 PA
2010: .286/.365/.449, 35 2B, 16 HR, 33 SB (10 CS) 3.7 WAR, 154 games, 653 PA
2011: .273/.372/.464, 28 2B, 15 HR, 17 SB (7 CS) 5.2 WAR, 113 games, 496 PA
The thing that stands out immediately with McCutchen is how scarily consistent he’s been in his first 3 seasons in Pittsburgh. It’s safe to say he probably won’t win a batting title in his career, but he does have a very impressive on base percentage that continues to improve (his walk rate is this season is highest it’s ever been, 12.7% vs 11% and 10.7% in ’09 and ’10). On the base path he’s already a proven base stealer, sporting a career 77% success rate on stolen base attempts. Again, it’s safe to assume he’ll never lead the league in home runs, but his power is clearly developing. He’s hitting the ball harder this year than he ever has before (19.7% line drive percentage vs 18.6% and 18.8% last 2 years) and he’s just 1 HR shy of topping his career best from last season.
Now let’s compare that with Upton:
2009: .300/.366/.532, 30 2B, 26 HR, 20 SB (5 CS) 4.8 WAR, 138 games, 588 PA
2010: .273/.356/.442, 27 2B, 17 HR, 18 SB (8 CS) 3.0 WAR, 133 games, 571 PA
2011: .296/.371/.548, 32 2B, 23 HR, 16 SB (7 CS) 5.3 WAR, 115 games, 499 PA
Like McCutchen, Upton will probably never win a batting title, but he clearly posses the power to become a big time home run hitter. After breaking out with a huge 2009 season, he struggled with injury and consistency problems in 2010 (safe to assume the consistency problems were related to his injury problems). This year he’s been an absolute monster at the plate and has a chance to finish the season with 50 doubles and 30 home runs. While he definitely has the speed to be an elite base stealer, I’m guessing that as his body matures he’ll look to run less as his career moves on.
What makes these 2 both special players is that they are all around talents, not just great hitters. While I don’t fully trust advanced defensive stats, for what it’s worth McCutchen has a 9.4 UZR this season and Upton has a 9.3 UZR. UZR will slightly tilt in favor McCutchen since he plays center field, a more demanding position, but if you’ve seen either one of these 2 play the field you know how solid they are. McCutchen has seemingly infinite range in center while Upton has an absolute cannon of an arm in right.
I wouldn’t be saying anything bold by saying Upton has the greater upside of the two, but there is one aspect of his that I just can’t get over: injuries. He has been completely healthy for the first time in his career this season, and I hope he stays healthy because the numbers he’ll finish the year with will be truly special. However, given his injury background (and his brother’s injury history for that matter) I find it hard to believe he’ll have very many 162 game seasons. McCutchen seems to be built better for the long haul and has never had any injury problems throughout his baseball career.
That being said, I’m still taking Upton. I don’t doubt that McCutchen will be a perennial all star throughout his career and will remain one of the better players in baseball. However, if Upton can stay healthy, he has a chance to be one of the all time greats. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he wins multiple MVP awards before his career is over. If I were a GM, I think it would be worth the injury risk to choose Upton over McCutchen. Let me close with this: there was another outfielder who broke into the bigs as a teenager after being the #1 overall pick. He too was an amazing hitter and fielder, and also battled injuries throughout his career. His name was Ken Griffey Jr. Not saying Upton will be as good as Griffey, but any career that comes close to matching what he did will undoubtedly be a successful one.
*All stats are through August 9th, and are courtesy of FanGraphs.com
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