Warriors Game 4 Recap

My short attention span tonight has turned what I thought to be a narrative-based game recap into a bullet point post. Enjoy!

• The Warriors starting guards combined to shoot 10-32 from the field. The bench, the new supposed strength of the team, was 7-18 from the field. The fact they only lost by 2 and had a chance to win at the buzzer was very unexpected.

• With 4:11 left in the 4^th, the Warriors were down 89-78. Going to go out on a limb and say that most teams the W’s play this year will execute slightly better than the Kings did down the stretch.

• That said, aside from a Curry transition 3, all the W’s scoring down the stretch came from shots inside of 10 feet or from free throws caused by guys driving to the rim. With 11 seconds left and the Warriors down 1, they were able to inbound the ball to Bogut in the post, who passed to Klay running off a screen for an open 15 footer. Klay missed the jumper, but it was a great look on a high percentage shot. As many joked on twitter (guilty as charged) this play in years past would have been an iso play for Monta who would have held the ball for too long and fired a low percentage shot.

• DeMarcus Cousins scored 23 points on 16 shots and grabbed 15 rebounds. He torched whoever was guarding him with post ups, face ups, jump shots, and just about every skill you’d want a big man to posses. Not even sure a 100% healthy Andrew Bogut will be able to do anything to stop him in the future. The 2 of them even got into a little scuffle at one point, each getting a technical. Needless to say I’m beyond excited to watch those 2 go at it (hopefully) 3 more times this year.

• Bogut was only a +2 in his 19 minutes tonight, but its very easy to see how much better the Warriors are when he’s on the floor. Hopefully when he’s back to full strength we won’t see David Lee play 41 mins like he did tonight. 

• Warriors’ killer Chuck Hayes is never impressive in the box score (4 points and 6 rebounds in 23 mins) but he is a nightmare for finesse power forwards like David Lee (he’s the type of physical, defensive minded big guy I’ve always thought the W’s needed).  He forced Lee into a costly turnover down the stretch, which actually begged the question as to why the W’s would run a post set for Lee in that situation. 

• I mentioned the bench struggling earlier. It was unrealistic to expect those guys, especially Landry, to keep playing at the level they were playing at. However, this is their 3^rd road game already this season and bench players always perform better at home. Just mentioning that because 16 of the Warriors last 22 games are at Oracle this season.

• The Warriors next game is Wednesday night at home versus Cleveland. Is it a bit much to say that Game 5 is a must win game? I say NO! I’m expecting Kyrie to go off against Curry, but if the Warriors want to have any chance at all at making the playoffs, they absolutely need to win that one. 

Boxing at the Barclays

I want to quickly preview tonight’s card from the Barclays Center because I really enjoy that Showtime is making a habit of airing 4 fights for each boxing show. Also, no one will read this post because there are no boxing fans left in the world, and it’s my blog and I do what I want!

IBF welterweight title: Randall Bailey (43-7, 37 KO) vs. Devon Alexander (23-1, 13 KO)

Favorite: Alexander (-600)

There are only 2 possible outcomes for this fight: Bailey by KO or Alexander by (unanimous) decision. Bailey has little to no actual boxing skills, but he has a huge right hand, which keeps him alive in any fight. In his last fight vs. Mike Jones, he was losing on all 3 judges’ scorecards going into the 10^th round before dropping Jones with, guess what, a huge right hand. Jones survived the round but Bailey dropped him again in the 11th with an uppercut, causing the ref to stop the fight and giving Bailey the IBF welterweight title.

Alexander is a boxer, not a fighter. He’s going to dance around all night, stay away from Bailey and score points with his jab. He has been down in fights before, so if he does get caught by a Bailey right it could be over for him, but Alexander likes to keep it boring in the ring, which I’m sure is his game plan tonight. Alexander is actually my least favorite boxer out there, but I am picking him to win this by decision. He might not lose a round. If you’re going to miss any fight on the card tonight, make it this one.

WBO middleweight title: Hassan N'dam (27-0, 17 KO) vs. Peter Quillin (27-0, 20 KO)

Favorite: Quillin (-200)

I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen here. Quillin has a nice record, but his most notable fight came this year when he beat a 40 year old WInky Wright who hadn’t fought in 3 years, and even then Quillin couldn’t score a KO. N’dam, the WBO middleweight title holder for some reason, also has a nice record but has never fought outside of France.

I feel like this could be a big fight for the career of Quillin if he wins in exciting fashion. He’s a 29 year old, undefeated, American fighter who fights out of Brooklyn, so the crowd should be in his favor. And even though most people have no idea who the belt holders are in boxing, in the last 10 years, Oscar De La Hoya, Bernard Hopkins, Jermaine Taylor, and Kelly Pavlik have all held the WBO middleweight belt, so it would have some significance if an American were to win that belt back. I’m going with Quillin to win with a late stoppage.

Paulie Malignaggi (31-4, 7 KO) vs. Pablo Cesar Cano (25-1-1, 19 KO)

Favorite: Malignaggi (-370)

This is my favorite fight of the night. Brooklyn’s Malignaggi gets boxing: he’s marketed himself as a larger than life personality who can actually back it up with skills in the ring. He will most definitely have the crowd in his favor, and if you follow him on twitter you know he will be tweeting before, during, and after the fight. Seriously.

Cano missed weight for this fight, otherwise they’d be fighting for Malignaggi’s WBA welterweight title. Cano is an exciting young fighter, but is tailor-made for Malignaggi. Cano is going to want to come forward, while Paulie will want to hit him with combinations and step around. Cano is the bigger man, which will be to his disadvantage in this fight since he’ll be a bigger target for Malignaggi to hit. I’m predicting a Malignaggi win by decision in what should be the most entertaining fight of the night.

WBC/WBA junior welterweight titles: Danny Garcia (24-0, 15 KO) vs. Erik Morales (52-8, 36 KO)

Favorite: Garcia (-600)

This is a strange rematch here. These 2 fought earlier this year with Garcia winning by unanimous decision. From there, Garcia went on to beat Amir Khan by knocking him out in 4 rounds in a really spectacular performance that made Garcia the top guy in the 140 pound weight class. With seemingly unlimited options of who to fight next, he strangely chose to rematch the 36-year-old Morales. What Garcia is trying to prove here is unknown to me (though I’m sure he’ll be compensated well).

Morales is a future hall of famer, known mostly for being the last man to (legitimately) beat Manny Pacquiao. In their first fight, Morales showed up out of shape and over weight (he missed weight by 2 pounds). Apparently he tested positive for a stimulant that helps with weight loss leading up to this fight too. Garcia did clearly win the first matchup, but Morales did a decent job of frustrating Garcia in the ring and luring him into more of a brawl, which favors Morales. In trying to think on the bright side of this matchup, I was hoping a more in shape and focused Morales would be able to do this again in the rematch. However I just don’t see it happening. Morales really has nothing left to prove in the ring and seems content to show up to collect another huge paycheck. I’ve got Garcia winning this one by a clear decision.

Yes, I did just pick all favorites to win tonight. Boring, I know. But a 4-man parlay pays +150, so if you are jonesing for a little action, I suggest doing that. 

Derek Jeter - Captain "Clutch"

If you go to baseball-reference.com, you will see "Captain Clutch" listed as one of Derek Jeter's nicknames. On that same page, you can see stats for his entire career, including postseason stats. So, with all this information at our fingertips, we can tell just how clutch Mr. Jeter is, can't we? 

Jeter's last playoff game was his 158th for his career, meaning he's played essentially an entire extra season of just postseason games. Clearly Captain Clutch's playoff numbers are significantly better than his regular season numbers right?

Well let's see! For this comparison, let's use his career stats broken down to a 162 game season average:

Playoffs: 158 games
162 avg: 162 games (obvi)

Playoffs: 734 plate appearances
162 avg: 745 plate appearances 

(Pretty good base-line for comparison....)

Playoffs: 200 hits
162 avg: 207 hits

Playoffs: 32 doubles
162 avg: 33 doubles


Playoffs: 5 triples
162 avg: 4 triples


Playoffs: 18 stolen bases
162 avg: 22 stolen bases

(Sensing a trend...)


Playoffs: .308 batting average 
162 avg: .313 batting average


Playoffs: 66 walks
162 avg: 65 walks


Playoffs: .374 on base percentage
162 avg: .382 on base percentage


Playoffs: 302 total bases
162 avg: 296 total bases


Playoffs: .465 slugging percentage
162 avg: .448 slugging percentage

(Eerily similar...)


Playoffs: 20 home runs
162 avg: 16 home runs

(A-ha! clearly he drives in more runs in the playoffs!)


Playoffs: 61 RBIs
162 avg: 79 RBIs 

Well.

There's a couple things we can take away from this. 1: Maybe Derek Jeter isn't as clutch as we all think he is? 2: Or, maybe there's no such thing as clutch? After all, if the most clutch baseball player of our generation performs EXACTLY the same in the playoffs as he does in the regular season...

No no. That can't be true. He's obviously clutch and steps up under the bright lights of the postseason. After all, he is Mr. November.

John Wall: How to Succeed in the NBA When Your Teammates Aren't Really Trying

I realized while watching the Warriors vs Wizards game last night that I hadn’t seen the Wizards play at all this year, a fact that had not caused me to miss a moment of sleep. I’ve kept up with the Wizards shenanigans for the most part, from Andray Blatche complaining about his role after the team’s first game (the fact he was named team captain still blows my mind) to Flip Saunders getting fired to Javale McGee’s constant buffoonery (John Wall’s body language in that clip says it all), but I hadn’t watched them play yet. A lot of this has to do with the fact I live on the West Coast, I work for The Man and Wizards games aren’t on national TV very much. But I have seen a fair amount of bad teams play this year, so it felt weird going into a game with essentially a clean slate.

Well, the Wizards were all that could be expected, losing to my Warriors 120-100 in a game where it felt like they were down 20 from the opening tip. Their roster is a perfect collection of players who have no idea how to play team basketball, except for John Wall. He stands out so clearly on the floor when he plays, not just because he such an incredible athlete (he outran Monta Ellis down the floor a few times) but because he seems to be the only player on that team that actually cares. He finished the game with 20 points (7-10 FGs, 6-7 FTs), 14 assists, 6 rebounds and only 2 turnovers. Now take those numbers with a grain of salt since the game was a blowout and he was playing the Warriors, the 5th worst defensive team in terms of defensive efficiency.

But those numbers did raise his season averages to 17.6 points per game, 7.8 assists per game and 5.0 rebounds per game. Which had me thinking: how many players have averaged at least 17 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds per game in either their rookie season or their 2nd season?

Warriors Collapse On the Court and Off

In the Golden State Warriors loss last night to the Memphis Grizzlies, you can’t place the blame on one play or one player. When a team blows a 20-point lead with 15 minutes to play, it is truly a team effort. After the game, everyone was quick to point the finger at Monta Ellis and Steph Curry for their costly turnovers in the 4th quarter, which is completely fair. Ellis and Curry combined for 6 4th quarter turnovers, which is unacceptable. However, there were plenty more factors that go into a game like that.

Mark Jackson let his starters play the first 9 minutes of the game, until Andris Biedrins picked up his 2nd foul. At that point, the Warriors had a 16-9 lead. When the 2nd quarter started, the Warriors had a 23-13 lead and their lineup on the floor consisted entirely of bench players: Nate Robinson, Brandon Rush, Klay Thompson, Dominic McGuire and Ekpe Udoh. This lineup remained on the floor until there was 3:30 left in the quarter, and the W’s had extended their lead to 40-25. To do the math for you, the all-bench Warriors outscored the Grizzlies 17-12 for 8 minutes and 30 seconds.

The 3rd quarter started off the same as the 1st for the Warriors: generally sloppy but good enough to extend the lead. With 3:20 left in the 3rd, the Warriors had extended their lead to 20 points, led by mostly starters on the floor (Biedrins was subbed out for Rush with 5:30 left in the quarter). The quarter ended with the Warriors holding a 68-52 lead and, like the start of the 2nd quarter, the all-bench lineup came out to start the 4th. But the 4th quarter would not play out the same way as the 2nd.

Baron Davis: Barometer of NBA Owners Sanity

One thing I know for sure is that the NBA will lockout will end. It might take weeks, months, or years, but there will definitely be a National Basketball Association again at some point. Another thing I’m pretty sure of is that when the NBA returns, there will be an amnesty clause that will allow teams to drop one contract off the books. They’ll still have to pay that player but for salary cap purposes, the record is struck clean.

One thing I have absolutely no idea about in regards to the NBA lockout is whether or not NBA owners will have learned anything from this experience. Obviously the biggest hurdle in the negotiations between the owners and the players has been how to divide basketball related income (BRI). However the one thing that affects what the owners pull in from BRI is how much they have to pay out in salaries to their players. Long story short: the owners need to be saved from themselves by not giving out egregious contracts to players who don’t deserve them in order to maximize their BRI share.

I thought about the owners today randomly when a report came out that Baron Davis said that if he were to end up as a free agent as a result of the amnesty clause that he’d prefer to play for the Lakers, Knicks, or Bobcats. Initially I thought this was funny. I enjoyed the idea of Boom Dizzle thinking that he’d be in such demand in the upcoming free agent session that he could somehow control his own destiny and decide which team he wanted to play for. All fat and out of shape jokes aside, Davis is a soon to be 33 year old point guard with a ridiculously long injury history that barely managed to shoot over 40% from the field the last 2 years.

Facing My Mark Jackson Fears

I’m getting way ahead of myself today. Considering that there is no guarantee there will be an NBA season this year, writing about the new Golden State Warriors head coach seems like a futile exercise. The man has barely had a chance to meet his players let alone get the chance to start implementing plays or strategy for the team. However, since the NBA regular season was supposed to start this week, I’m getting a little antsy, and his lunch with the local Bay Area media has already received a lot of attention.

A little background before I dive into his quotes. I have been anti-Mark Jackson from day one. I was upset he was even considered a candidate to become the new Warriors head coach. When he was hired, I was more than a little upset. This had nothing to do with the fact that I thought he was annoying TV personality. It was the idea that he had always wanted to become a head coach but instead of actually, you know, going into coaching he chose the cushy life of an NBA TV color man. No disrespect intended for anyone who works in TV, but I’d assume if you work in TV it’s a career that you actually intended on doing. Pretty safe to say most successful NBA coaches who were former players actually decided to hone their coaching skills by taking some sort of assistant job rather than taking a gig as a TV personality.

The great Matt Steinmetz of CSN Bay Area provided all these quotes and blurbs from Coach Jackson. One of the major points Jackson was trying to emphasize was that he wasn’t a fan of “false hustle.” Basically he was saying that working long hours just to do it, or having extra long practices just to say you practiced isn’t worth it and he’d rather focus on the efficiency and quality of the work that he, the coaches and the team puts in.